Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at its lowest level since mid-December 2020 on June 13, but the bottom could be anywhere.

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As the weekend sell-off intensifies, BTC/USD broke below its level. selling price for the first time since March 2020, data from Cryptooshala Markets Pro and trade view confirms.

Bitcoin clings to the realization price

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At around $23,400, the realized price — the average price each BTC last moved — acts as the first solid support on the lower timeframes.

Bitcoin realization price compared to BTC/USD chart. Source: glassnode
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Previous levels, including those marked as potential lows, have not held and sentiment continues to favor further selling pressure thanks to the effects of Celsius, inflation and upcoming US Federal Reserve action.

Meanwhile, the question of where BTC/USD can set the final macroeconomic low is now the subject of heated debate.

Traders and analysts agree that the first signal for a significant drawdown is the 200-week simple moving average (200 SMA).

At $22,370 as of June 13, the 200 SMA has acted as a key support throughout the life of Bitcoin, with only short outflows below this level marking a generation spot price bottom.

In addition, the 200 SMA has never broken its uptrend and it is hoped that reaching it will give the bulls at least a period of respite.

Weekly candlestick chart of BTC/USD (Bitstamp) with 200 SMA. Source: Trading View

“People want to buy there, in this area the price is likely to rebound,” Josh Rager said in a special issue. video update in a day.

Describing the 200 SMA bounce as a “self-fulfilling prophecy” due to the scale of interest in it, he warned that there is a guarantee that BTC/USD will not continue lower this time around.

This is thanks to a historical precedent that shows that Bitcoin has fallen 84% below its most recent all-time high. So at $69,000, that bottom would be only $11,000.

“That would be disastrous; I don’t think the price is going to drop that low, I mean you’re basically looking at a complete pullback of the entire bull market and we’ve never seen anything like that,” Rager continued.

Instead, areas of interest are the 2017 all-time high near $20,000, and the area immediately below extending to $17,000. He added that $14,000, which equates to an 80 percent pullback from current all-time highs, is also worth looking at.

As reported by Cryptooshala, some of these levels have already been flagged as potential bottoms by others, including trader and analyst Rekt Capital.

In a series of tweets on June 13, the value of the 200 SMA reappeared.

Fed Becomes Bulls’ Last Chance Saloon

Meanwhile, at the time of writing, BTC/USD has managed to avoid another fall in line with US stock markets.

Lowest Weekly Close Since December 2020 – 5 Things To Know About Bitcoin This Week

The S&P 500, by contrast, shed 3% during the first hour of trading, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.6%.

Some argue that only the Fed can stop the fall of the cryptocurrency by reversing the tightening of monetary policy as rising interest rates curb growth.

“Realize how little this cryptodump has to do with Celsius and the stETH drama, and it’s all to do with the widespread panic over risky assets (both stocks and cryptocurrencies) and broken charts,” economist, trader and entrepreneur Alex Krueger . said Twitter followers that day shrugged off news of Celsius.

BUT next post read:

“This is just my opinion, I am often wrong. My guess is that Celsius will add 1.2x to the fuel. Everyone does it about Celsius. Follow the media tomorrow.

However, long-term participants in the bitcoin market had few illusions. If BTC/USD falls below $20,000, this will be the first time that the previous halving cycle’s all-time high has been crossed.

“Without a Fed reversal, I expect this to be the first cycle that Bitcoin falls below previous cycles of all time,” said Charles Edwards, CEO of management company Capriole. concluded.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Every investment and trading step involves risk, you should do your own research when making a decision.