Bitcoin could hit $10M in 9 years but more sidechains needed: Blockstream CEO

Blockstream CEO Adam Back believes that the price of bitcoin (BTC) could reach $10 million by the end of the sixth halving in 2032 if bitcoin’s second layer technology and wallet infrastructure improves.

In a Twitter thread on February 12, Back, one of the members of the Bitcoin core, was explanation to its 509,000 subscribers, in which situation Hal Finney’s prediction of a BTC price of $10 million could come true.

He noted that the price of BTC has doubled on an annualized average since 2013 and explained that if this trend continues, the price of BTC will reach $10 million along with a $200 trillion market capitalization in about nine years.

However, Back said that in order to reach this figure, improvements in Bitcoin’s layer 2 technologies and wallet infrastructure need to be quickly tracked to allow time for these innovations to scale:

“I think things will get ‘more interesting’ in the next two halvings. and fast, we don’t have much time to scale technology. we need somewhere for the next billion users to have their own UTXO, their own keys with censorship-proof cold storage. without compromising the security of the main chain.”

Back said it “probably means sidechains/drivechains as a compromise. more lightning optimization […] we don’t have much time as technology takes time to mature, wallets, interoperability, integration.”

Responding to a comment, Back said he believes Bitcoin adoption has not yet reached the bottom of the S-curve, as only 1-2% of the world’s population has connected to Bitcoin. He predicts that more investors will start “stacking” BTC into cold storage wallets:

“Given the volatility, I think #bitcoin could bounce one of those $100-$300 trillion market caps hard, correct, and then regain more sustainable adoption over time. I suspect that people with medium entry points compared to the current price will not have much incentive to sell in large volumes.”

The CEO explained that part of this next wave of adoption could come from what he describes as “bursts of hyperbitcoinization,” as people in a hyperinflationary environment “rush” to bitcoin:

Adam Back believes that inflation in fiat currencies can force people to buy and hold bitcoins. Source: Twitter.

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However, in response to another comment, Back also acknowledged that “so far, we’ve completely failed to fund bitcoin.” Cypherpunk suggested that Bitcoin could be used in mortgages, where property is used as collateral and Bitcoin as interest:

“The market for financialization associated with bitcoin is immature, almost intact. structured bitcoin products, real estate-backed mortgages but interest guaranteed by bitcoin, other products make bitcoin easier to use for more people and fit risk profiles. which creates more growth.”

Back added that in order to get closer to $10 million, BTC would also need to “crowd out” a significant share of value retention premiums in bonds, real estate, gold and stock portfolios.

BTC is currently worth $21,800.

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