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Bitcoin to see boom in adoption, break 10% level by 2030

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Bitcoin (BTC) is at a very early stage in its adoption and data indicates that it will enter a phase of exponential growth and exceed 10 percent adoption in 2030, according to blockchain infrastructure and user adoption by bitcoin mining company Blockware Solutions. report.

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The report compares Bitcoin’s current adoption rate to other technologies’ historical data and notes that, based on Bitcoin’s short history and its current position on the expected adoption timeline, the expected adoption increase could happen even faster than other historical examples.


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The S-curve appears when the historical adoption rates of disruptive technologies such as automobiles, landlines, tablets, cell and smartphones, radio, electricity, the Internet, and social media add up.

Breakthrough Adoption Curve
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The innovators who created the first 2.5 adoption rates are entrepreneurs looking for the next best investment. The first users, according to the report, are:

“These are people with a broad outlook, directly or indirectly associated with innovators. Early adopters often face scrutiny and opposition from outsiders.”

The late majority stage is reached when the technology becomes mainstream and is used in everyday items. The last 10%, the laggards, refer to those who resisted or were in a position that made them unable to accept the new technology. When these individuals or organizations also integrate the technology in question, the S-curve peaks.

While the pace of adoption is the same for all disruptive technologies, the pace of this cycle increases over time, the report also concludes. For example, it took 40 years for stationary technologies to reach the late majority stage, while the Internet took 10 years.

Where is bitcoin?

In an effort to properly quantify the adoption rate of Bitcoin, the report takes into account the number of new objects that ever appear in a transaction and their net growth.

Compared to the world’s population, the current Bitcoin adoption rate is estimated at 0.36% in the report.

Current bitcoin acceptance rate

In terms of acceptance rate, the resulting chart looks like the one shown above. Remaining relatively stagnant from 2009 to 2015, adoption has accelerated exponentially since 2016.

Current bitcoin acceptance rate

The chart above appears when the current bitcoin adoption rate fits into the expected bitcoin adoption S-chart. While the report states that the current bitcoin community is behaving like an early adopter group, there are still four stages to go through for global adoption of bitcoin.

The report used a 10-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of unique users on the Bitcoin network, which it estimates is 30.8 million, and then divided by each year’s expected global population to convert the raw number of users. to a percentage of the population to predict a period of growth from the current adoption state to 10% adoption.

Blockware says it uses this CAGR up to the 10% threshold because data from past technology adoption curves is not available before it reaches this approximate threshold.

The report says that as adoption follows its proposed s-curve, the supply of bitcoin will decrease due to its code being halved.

Bitcoin offer and acceptance chart

As a result, while the adoption rate reaches the stage where Bitcoin becomes mainstream and used in everyday life, its supply will peak. The adoption rate and hence the demand will continue to rise in the coming years, while the supply will not change.

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