“Black Swan” Author Ridicules $1 Million Bitcoin Price Prediction

Former a16z partner and Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan has come under fire for an outlandish bitcoin price prediction made by renowned scientist and risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb. criticism Pari Srinivasana as a “crazy” move.

Srinivasan stated on Twitter that he would wager $1 million on bitcoin reaching $1 million within 90 days, sparking heated debate and backlash from the cryptocurrency community.

Taleb took to Twitter to express his skepticism, stating that Srinivasan’s trade is “trading against himself” which only “lunatics do under the influence”.

Taleb, the author of The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, and Antifragility, is known for his expertise in risk and probability analysis, which makes his criticism especially harsh.

He also emphasized that Srinivasan’s bet could be used for arbitrage, suggesting that his followers determine the optimal strategy.

Other prominent voices echoed the controversy: trader and investor Roy Blackstone, director of special projects at MIT, compared Srinivasan’s prediction to John McAfee’s infamous bet that he would eat his manhood if bitcoin didn’t reach $1 million by 2020.

Blackstone suggested that Srinivasan’s prediction was just a ploy to help his friends with their long positions.

Matt Levin, a financial journalist, also questioned the logic of the outlandish forecast. He noted that if Srinivasan truly believed that the flagship cryptocurrency would be worth $1 million in 90 days, he should have bought 40 bitcoins instead of one.

Levin also noted that many replies to his tweet suggest that Srinivasan was trying to manipulate the market by making a futures trade well above the current price.

Cryptocurrency analyst Qiao Wang gave a more measured response, stating that a world in which Bitcoin reaches $1 million within three months is likely to be followed by catastrophic events such as nuclear war, the escape of artificial general intelligence (AGI), or the arrival of hostile extraterrestrial forces. .

Wang argued that while bitcoin could realistically reach $1 million within 10 to 20 years, the short time frame proposed by Srinivasan would not be favorable, even if the odds were in his favor.

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