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Grayscale: Bitcoin Could See Another 5-6 Months of Downward or Sideways Price Movement

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Grayscale Investments explained that there could be 250 more days of the current crypto bear market, citing patterns from previous cycles. In addition, “Bitcoin is 222 days below its all-time high, meaning we could see another 5-6 months of price movement down or sideways,” the world’s largest digital asset manager said.

Cryptocurrency Market Prospects Grayscale

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Grayscale Investments, the world’s largest digital asset manager, has published report titled “Bear Markets in Perspective” this week.

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The firm explained, “The duration, time to peak and bust, and recovery time to previous all-time highs in each market cycle may suggest that the current market may resemble previous cycles, with the result that the crypto industry continues to innovate and push new peaks.”

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The report details:

Crypto market cycles last on average ~4 years or approximately 1275 days.

While most bitcoiners are familiar with market cycles based on the bitcoin halving cycle, the gray scale has defined the overall cycle of the crypto market, which also roughly corresponds to a four-year period.

The digital asset manager explained, “While methods for identifying cycles in the cryptocurrency market vary, we can quantify the cycle when the realized price falls below the market price (the asset’s current trading price) using bitcoin prices as a proxy.”

Chart showing Bitcoin market cycles. Source: Grayscale Investments

“As of June 13, 2022, Bitcoin’s realized price has fallen below the market price, signaling that we may have officially entered a bear market,” Grayscale described.

The report goes on to explain that in the 2012 cycle, there were 303 days in the zone where the realized price was below the market price of bitcoin. In the 2016 cycle, the zone had 268 days.

Noting that we are only in this zone for 21 days in the 2020 cycle, the digital asset manager noted:

Compared to previous cycles, we may see about 250 more days of opportunity for high-value purchases.

In addition, the report notes that each time the peak cycles of the crypto market take approximately 180 days longer.

Cryptocurrency cycles. Source: Grayscale Investments

“From peak to low, the 2012 and 2016 cycles lasted approximately 4 years, or 1290 and 1257 days respectively, and took 391 days to fall 73% in 2012 and 364 days to fall 84% in 2016,” Grayscale said. .

“In the current 2020 cycle, we have 1,198 days as of July 12, 2022, which could mean approximately four more months left in this cycle until the realized price exceeds the market price,” the firm continued, elaborating :

Bitcoin is 222 days below its all-time high, meaning we could see another 5-6 months of price movement down or sideways.

What do you think of Grayscale’s explanation of where the crypto market is heading? Let us know in the comments below.

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Credit : news.bitcoin.com

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