Price analysis 2/13: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, DOGE, ADA, MATIC, SOL
Bitcoin (BTC) and some altcoins are threatening to deepen their correction after reports emerged that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a Wells Notice to Paxos alleging Binance USD (BUSD) pegged stablecoin against the dollar is an unregistered security. . In addition, the New York City Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) ordered Paxos to stop issuing BUSD.
Following last week’s crackdown on Kraken and now Paxos, the regulator’s actions could add to the nervousness among crypto investors. FOX Business journalist Eleanor Terrett tweeted on Feb. 12 that “I was told there would be more posts from Wells in the next 2-3 weeks.”
Volatility may remain high for the foreseeable future as market watchers look ahead to the release of CPI data on Feb. 14. Interestingly, Bitcoin showed a golden cross on the daily chart and a death cross on the weekly chart.
This suggests that the medium-term trend remains negative, but the short-term trend may signal a reversal. Let’s examine the charts to find critical support and resistance levels to look out for.
The S&P 500 (SPX) turned down from 4200 on Feb 2 and reached the 20-day exponential moving average (4057) on Feb 10. This is an important level that bulls must defend if they want to continue their recovery. intact.
The 20-day EMA is gradually rising and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in positive territory, indicating a slight advantage for buyers. The bulls will try to push the price towards the upper resistance at 4200.
This is an important level to keep an eye on because if the bulls break through this resistance, the index could rise to 4300 and then to 4500.
If the bears want to gain the upper hand, they will have to push the index below the 20-day EMA. This can bring the index down to the uptrend line.
The US dollar index (DXY) turned down from the resistance line on Feb. 7, but the bears failed to push the price below the 20-day EMA (103). This involves a change in sentiment from selling on the ups to buying on the downs.
The 20-day EMA turned up and the RSI moved into positive territory, suggesting that the bulls are making a comeback. If the price breaks and holds above the resistance line, the short-term trend may turn positive. The index can then start moving north to 106 and then to 108.
Instead, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks the 20-day EMA, this would mean that the index could extend its stay inside the wedge pattern for a few more days.
Bitcoin’s attempt to recover failed at $22,090 on Feb. 12, indicating that the bears are selling on every minor advance and are not waiting for the price to hit the 20-day EMA ($22,241).
This increases the likelihood of a break below $21,480. A descending 20-day EMA and RSI in the negative zone indicate that the path of least resistance is down. The next support is the 50-day simple moving average ($20,439).
If the price bounces off this support, the bulls will try to take the BTC/USDT pair above $21,480 and attack the 20-day EMA. Buyers will have to overcome this hurdle to seize control and open the doors to a possible uptick to $23,500.
Ether (ETH) is struggling to find a foothold at the $1,500 support level. The 20-day EMA ($1,567) has turned down and the RSI is in negative territory, indicating that the bears have the upper hand.
If the 50-day SMA ($1,483) fails to stem the decline, selling could pick up and ETH/USDT could drop to solid support at $1,352. This level can attract aggressive buying from the bulls. If the price rebounds from it, the pair may fluctuate between $1352 and $1680 for some time.
Another possibility is that the price rises from the 50-day SMA and breaks above the 20-day EMA. The pair could then rise to $1,680, which remains a key level for the bulls to break through.
On Feb. 12, BNB (BNB) faced a bounce at $318, indicating that the bears are selling on the rally. The bears will try to strengthen their positions even further by dragging the price below the strong support at $280.
The 20-day EMA ($310) has started to turn lower and the RSI is in negative territory, indicating that the bears have the upper hand. If the $280 level collapses, the BNB/USDT pair could witness aggressive selling. The next support is $250.
Conversely, if the price rebounds from $280, the bulls will again try to push the pair above $318. If they succeed, the pair may rise to the neckline of an evolving inverted head and shoulders pattern.
The bulls failed to defend the 50-day SMA ($0.38), indicating a lack of demand at lower levels. The next support for XRP (XRP) is $0.36.
The 20-day EMA ($0.39) has started to turn lower and the RSI has slipped into negative territory, indicating that the bears have the upper hand.
Even if the price rebounds from $0.36, the bears will try to sell on the rally to the 20-day EMA. If the price deviates from this level, it will increase the likelihood of a break below $0.36. The XRP/USDT pair could then drop to $0.33.
Alternatively, if the price reverses and rises above the 20-day EMA, the pair could be stuck between $0.36 and $0.43 for some more time.
Dogecoin (DOGE) is witnessing a tough battle between bulls and bears near the moving averages. On a minor positive note, the bulls did not allow the price to hold below the 50-day SMA ($0.08).
If buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, DOGE/USDT could rise to psychological resistance at $0.10. The bears are expected to vigorously defend the zone between $0.10 and $0.11 because if it is scaled up, the pair could gain momentum and soar to $0.15.
Conversely, if the price holds below the 50-day SMA, the bears will try to push the pair down to the critical support at $0.07. This level is likely to attract aggressive buying from the bulls.
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The bulls tried to push Cardano (ADA) back above the 20-day EMA ($0.37) on February 12, but the bears did not budge. This shows that the sellers are trying to gain the upper hand.
The bears pushed the price below the immediate support at $0.35, opening the way for a potential fall to the 50-day SMA ($0.34) and then decisive support at $0.32. A break below this level would mean the bears are back in the driver’s seat.
If the bulls want to prevent a deep correction, they will have to quickly push the price above the $0.38 resistance level. If the price holds above this level, ADA/USDT could rise to $0.41 and then to $0.44. This level is likely to be a major problem for the bulls.
Buyers tried to push Polygon (MATIC) above the $1.30 upper resistance on Feb. 12, but the bears held their ground. This may have prompted short-term traders to take profits, causing the price to drop below the 20-day EMA ($1.17).
If the bears keep the price below the 20-day EMA, the MATIC/USDT could drop to the 50-day SMA ($1.05). The zone between $1.05 and $1 is likely to attract buyers.
Usually, after such a deep correction, the next segment of the uptrend may not begin immediately. The price may fluctuate between $1.30 and $1.05 for several days before the next trend move begins.
Another possibility is that the price reverses up from the current level and rises to an upper resistance level at $1.35.
Solana (SOL) fell below the 20-day EMA ($22.19) on Feb. 9, but the bears failed to push the price below the 50-day SMA ($19.42) on Feb. 10. This shows that lower levels attract buyers.
The price reversed down from the 20-day EMA on February 13, indicating that the bears are trying to establish their dominance. If the price breaks below the 50-day SMA, selling could pick up and SOL/USDT could drop to $15.
Conversely, if the bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to upper resistance at $28. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break above it signals a potential trend reversal.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading step involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
Credit : cointelegraph.com