Prominent Crypto Analyst Bets Against Srinivasan’s $1 Million Bitcoin Prediction, Here’s Why

Renowned crypto analyst Adam Cochran recently voiced his disagreement with Balaji Srinivasan’s bold prediction that Bitcoin would hit a staggering $1 million mark within 90 days. Cochrane’s skepticism is rooted in historical data and the behavior of alternative assets during the crisis.

Cochran highlights that the bitcoin rally from 2020 to 2022 increased by 547%, while the 2017 rally, which occurred at much lower prices, resulted in only 1105% growth. In light of these numbers, Srinivasan’s prediction of a significant jump to $1 million in such a short amount of time seems far-fetched.

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The bet here is that within 90 days, bitcoin will reach a price of $1 million.

Or about 3600% gain over the next 90 days.

To put this into perspective, growth from 2020 to 2022 was only 547%, while growth in 2017 at much lower prices was only 1105%. pic.twitter.com/7OZZHXNgYX

— Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) (@adamscochran) March 18, 2023

Cochran also notes that alternative wealth assets such as cryptocurrencies and precious metals generally perform well in the face of economic risk rather than systemic risk. When the economy is struggling or cash flow is limited, alternative assets can be a viable option. However, when the entire system is in danger of collapse, the value of these assets becomes irrelevant.

The analyst gives an example of the stock market crash on February 20, 2020, when the world was struggling with the onset of the pandemic. During this period, the price of bitcoin fell by more than 60% from its peak. Even if one were to argue that Bitcoin is now more widely accepted as an alternative to gold, Cochran demonstrates that gold’s performance during the pandemic crash was also not particularly impressive.

Often considered a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty, gold has gained just 8.3% during the pandemic. Comparing Bitcoin’s reduced volatility (-70%) to gold’s (+8.3%) upside volatility over the same period, Cochran suggests that it’s unrealistic to expect Bitcoin to hit $1 million in 90 days based on Srinivasan’s rationale.