February 11, 2023 – Bitcoin (BTC) price and the broader crypto market experienced a correction earlier this week, giving back a portion of gains from January. While some traders were expecting a technical correction, news of the SEC’s enforcement against the Kraken exchange and the announcement that the staking-as-a-service program are unregulated securities. The crypto market was sold off on the news, leading to concerns that other exchanges such as Coinbase would be forced to do the same.
However, the question remains whether this correction reflects a reversal of the bullish trend seen throughout January or is it just a temporary setback? According to analysts at Delphi Digital, the crypto market is set for a “roller coaster ride in 2023”. Analysts Kevin Kelly and Jason Pagoulatos explain that the recent price action is due to a “recent increase in global liquidity” that favors risk-on assets. But both agree that macroeconomic headwinds will continue to affect the markets until at least the third quarter of 2023.
Despite the negative impact of this week’s news on crypto prices, there are several metrics that provide insight into the future of the crypto market. The US Dollar Index has recovered from its recent lows and its inverse correlation with the price of Bitcoin may provide insight into the market’s next move. Additionally, the bond market is signaling that the Fed’s policy may be too tight, and market participants are “playing chicken with the Fed trying to call off their bluff.”
From a technical analysis perspective, a drop in bitcoin price was expected and a retest of underlying support in the $20,000 area after a 40%+ monthly rally in January is not surprising. Based on historical data and fractal analysis, Delphi Digital analysts suggest that there is further scope for bitcoin as “there is not a lot of supply in the $24K – $28K range for BTC.”
Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook
While the short-term outlook is encouraging, the reality of some CPI components is sticky and Powell’s statement of the need for further increases in interest rates due to labor market strength should be taken into account. However, based on the analysis of several key metrics, analysts predict that the end of 2023 will be bullish for bitcoin and the crypto market.
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